THE REALITY OF POLITICAL CHANGE

Mr. Obama has been in office enough for observers to fully understand the nature of change he will bring about during his administration. Mr. Obama intends to change himself. He is not the first president (and is certainly not the first politician) to reveal that the great changes in America which he had proposed had emerged "stillborn" from the womb of federal policy. He cannot change America. He can only change himself.


The old Soviet description of power in America was "ruling circles." These "circles" staff the upper ranks of the American bureaucracy with their agents. High appointees tend to come from these sources. This is largely the reason that one always sees "retreads" given key, cabinet-level positions or key under-secretary positions by newly elected presidents. The pretex for putting an experienced, proven appointee in the office is the knowledge and experience he/she has acquired and/or demonstrated. Proven to whom? They are proven to the ruling circles from which they have emerged from their dormant positions as top business executives, finance executives, lawyers, "think tank gurus," or eminent, tenured academics to assume the appointed federal positions. These people overwhelmingly think alike in terms of ultimate goals. That they use a circular argument for continuing to appoint themseves is based on the well-considered fact that - it works!


One might have admired the fine oratory of Barack Obama, as he ran for the Office of President of the United States of America. One might have noted a promise of actual change. Of course, that is not unprecedented among the host of politicians that the average American will experience in a lifetime. Still, some of us have remained "cock-eyed" optomists willing to believe that "this time, we won't be fooled again." However, the character and composition of Mr. Obama's staff and political appointments had made immediately clear to experienced observers that the American Ship of State under his "captaincy" would not veer much from the course set by previous presidents. Indeed, he has obviously begun the process of "policy makeover" that guarantees a set of policy positions whose summary term is status quo ante.


Therefore, Mr. Obama's vision of a defining moment when America must change has suffered from the relentless pressure of smart, experienced advisers informing him that if you commit resources to a new Obama "policy A," then you will threaten old "policy B," upon which much money had been invested, which is finally showing signs of success, and which has now accummulated a strong base of support from important politicians, important captains of industry, and a large and growing portion of the citizenry, who now depend upon it for jobs. Hence, the president may not be able to pass the legislation required to proceed in the new direction he originally desired. In every direction that Mr. Obama will turns, he will find the same problem in slightly different "clothing." Thus, the hopeful "bud of change" is stifled by vested interests.


In the end Mr. Obama will present no idea more avant garde than share-cropping the White House lawn. Indeed, his wife, Michelle, will be given credit for that idea, leaving Barack Obama with little that he can put his finger on as a meaningful change. He is the victim of what I call "Regression to the Political Mean. It takes a "Hell of a man" to be a Historical Biggie. Barack Obama is just another team player. As always, the "ruling circles" devise the "game plan" for the next five years.






May 17, 2009